All guesstimates
ModeratePhysical Estimation
Weddings in India on a Single December Saturday
Scope it first — questions to ask
- · All communities and ceremony types, or only Hindu weddings? → All weddings; note Hindu muhurat dates drive the December clustering.
- · Registered marriages or wedding ceremonies? → Ceremonies — that's the observable event on a given day.
- · A typical December Saturday or a peak muhurat Saturday? → A typical Saturday in the December wedding season.
Assumptions on the table
- · India: 1.4B people, ~70-year life expectancy → ~20M people per age-year cohort — standard cohort trick.
- · ~90% of Indians marry — marriage is near-universal in India, unlike the West.
- · December is peak season: ~15% of the year's weddings happen in that one month — Nov–Feb carries roughly half of all Indian weddings.
- · Muhurat clustering plus weekend preference gives a Saturday ~3× the share of a uniform December day.
The worked solution
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